Paul Daugherty: Homer

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Homer

The buzz is that H. Bailey will get the start Saturday... as a fan (or a writer looking for a fresh angle on the same ol' Reds) I'd be all for it... if I'm ownership, I'd have to be outta my mind to bring him up now.

Saturday is June 9, very close to what is often the service-time cutoff for so-called "Super 2'' arbitration eligibles. That is, if Bailey is brought up and stays (Krivsky's sworn intent), he'll likely have enough time to be eligible for arb. after 2 full seasons, not the customary 3. If they waited until July 1, he likely would not.

What's the difference? Millions.

If the Reds were interested in saving the season, they should have promoted Bailey when Milton went on the DL, or after Lohse got bombed the 2nd or 3rd start in a row. Now, you have to feel it really doesnt matter.

If you've held off this long, what's another few weeks?

BTW, sending B. Livingston down is dumb. I don't care what the reason. Kid throws 6-plus shutout innings at Coors Field, you find a place for him in the big leagues. Is this staff so heavy with talent it can blithely send down a performance like that?

Management here consistently outthinks itself.

20 Comments:

at 10:20 PM

Anonymous said...

BK, JN, and BC don't appear to be on the same page whatsoever. Take a wild guess at what is going through Narron's mind: you or I could both be correct at any time of day. If the thoughts are the same as either Krivsky or Castellini (or both), you've just hit the bullseye in the dark.

One of the higher-ups (or all) is either lying, fibbing, guessing, or is just plain dumb. Allow me to throw my 2 cents into the mix.

Bringing Homer (isn't that a good nickname in the making?) up now is not smart on several levels. Pushing his arrival off until the SanFran series in the first week of July will likely avoid a good hit (no pun intended) to Castellini's pocket. From a baseball standpoint, many argue that if he's been pitching that well at AAA, allow him to get his feet wet with the big guys. I'm not so sure I agree with that for undisclosed reasons. I'll admit I'm not at the top of the baseball vs. business food chain. There are others (see JN or WK) that are getting paid a hell of a lot more money and are supposedly better at that thing than yours truly. However, I also don't think the Reds front office should allow the marketing bug to slip into its sheets.

And a little tip to everyone out there shouting for Narron to be burned at the stake and for Bailey to get homered upon by the blow-up doll that is Barry Bonds, you don't always know baseball from a backrub. Therefore, please stop bitching about the state of the Redlegs right now. What you're screaming isn't going to help and no one worth a damn is listening anyway.

at 9:57 AM

Anonymous said...

Ugh, you are such a contrarian.

Seriously, if they held him out until July, you'd be on your show every night saying "well those Reds are choosing dollars over winning again"

They can't win.

at 10:30 AM

Anonymous said...

I absolutely agree. Keep Homer down until mid-June. I hate to say it, but it is a shame that in MLB you have to choose who to promote based on $$$ rather than performance, especially with mid-cap teams like the Reds. I mean, if the Reds were able to use the top five starters without having to worry about $$$, then Milton wouldn't have seen a start and we would have seen Homer a while ago.

Also, Livingston should be given at least two more starts. What kind of a message does it send when you pitch well and then you are shipped down?

at 11:15 AM

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see this phenom...

By all accounts he can hit lefties, hit behind the runner, get you a sac fly when needed, play left field with the best and at the same time not strike out a lot, play first base, bunt, get a ground ball in the 8th inning and close a game with the likes of Mariano Rivera...........

Never mind that he still can't throw a big league change up or get a curve ball over consistently for strikes.......

at 11:43 AM

cow town said...

Homer can easily be optioned out twice between now and the end of the season for 10 days each, and that will liekly push him out of range for Super Two eligibility.

The first time could be later this month when the Reds have off days before and after the Seattle series. Homer can be sent down to stay on schedule with his starts, and the other four guys can cover for the Reds without going on short rest.

The second time would be around the All-Star break. The Reds can option Homer down ahead of the last weekend, and then start their rotation with Harang, Arroyo, Lohse and Belisle after the break, and Homer can make one start for the Bats.

at 11:45 AM

cow town said...

By the way, the Bats are playing an afternoon game today, and Josh Hamilton is not in the line up. He's obviously on his way to St. Loo.

I'm guessing Dewayne Wise will be DFAed.

at 6:13 AM

Anonymous said...

I'm hoping that they have been able to calculate that he will not become a 'super two'. If he becomes a FA they would lose Homer's 'age 27' year for the sake of part of his 'age 21' year. I know they publicly said that it was not part of the consideration I find it hard to believe that it would not.

at 7:45 AM

Jake said...

Does everyone remember God's gift to the Reds in '97? Brandon Larson! He's was great! (End Sarcasm). He should have stayed in AAA for at least another year before they called him up. Bailey should stay in AAA for the rest of the season to perfect his game. Here's the problem. Even if he does pitch well, he won't have a record to show for it. The Reds are notorious for screwing over Arroyo every time he pitches. Why should Bailey be any different?

at 7:59 AM

C. Fisch said...

If Homer starts this weekend I will be confused. Althogh I agree it is time for hime to "get his feet wet" because he will just continue to dominate poor minor league hitting, I also was told by Wayne and Mark Berry at a season ticket holder luncheon a week ago Friday that he was not ready. What has changed in the past week other than Homer having his worst outing of the year? If he pitches this weekend it will be all for selling tickets (which are $5 higer face value) so there are some Reds fans to accompany the Tribe fans. There are plenty of other options, some deserving (i.e. Bobby Livingston)to start this weekend. I think that Homer will struggle. I think he needs to. But I also think that they have had plenty of chances to run him out there this year. If they are not doing it to light a fire under Reds Fan Nation nad salvage what attendance they can, than they are finally admitting that this season is a lost cause. If that's the case, kudos! Let's see what the kid can do. Hpefully it will make our rotation that much better in 2008, Lord knows we can't use the bullpen!

at 8:35 AM

Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, C. Fisch: E-mail me a contact for you, phone or e-mail.. let's talk...pdaugherty@enquirer.com

at 11:09 AM

Anonymous said...

Obviously, there is a potentially explosive story here. But isn't it also obvious and has been the case all along that Krivsky wanted to take the time to develop Homer properly? He gave Homer his shot in spring training; the kid wasn't ready. Clearly this is a case where the owner has seen and heard enough about Homer that he wants Bailey up now. Narron wanted Homer up last year, so that hasn't changed. Who could tell Krivsky to bring up Homer? Castellini. Or maybe Krivsky is concerned about his job now and wants to try to hit on something that might save it. But something's up.

at 11:13 AM

Anonymous said...

Bad things always happen when Reds' management gets on the panic bandwagon...like Livingston being sent down for Homer Bailey fever. Livingston sent down from a rotation where as of today you have 2 dependable starters: Harang and Belisle. Hell, both Livingston and Bailey should be put in the rotation. Lohse just seems like the guy to help turn the bullpen around.

at 11:29 AM

Anonymous said...

Haven't you been banging the drum for him to come up all year?

I know you're job is to have an opinion and get people fired up, but how about a little consistency.

If the reds are smart this shouldn't matter at all. They should lock Homer into a reasonable long term deal while he's still young.

at 1:02 PM

Anonymous said...

If the decision to expedite Bailey's debut date results in millions of dollars of additional salary expense in a couple of years it means Bailey has lived up to the hype. And won't that be refreshing. A few million is a drop in the ocean relative to the salary savings which are on the horizon, i.e., no $13 million Dunn in '08 and no $16 million Ken Griffey in '09.

at 1:53 PM

Anonymous said...

Doc, you're dead-on. The kid's not ready, and everyone seems to know it, but they're bringing him up anyway, even though it's going to make him that much more expensive that much quicker. It boggles the mind. And don't forget -- he's just 21 years old!! The list of successful 21-year -old or younger pitchers in the major leagues is a short one indeed. And that list is riddled with careers cut short by injury. Do we want to turn Bailey into the next Mark Fidrych? According to Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658) pitchers 22 and younger have an injury rate over 20% higher than the average pitcher. So what's the rush?

at 2:08 PM

Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, 1129... good question... answer: I wanted him up a month ago, when they still had a chance to straighten things out in time to contend in this bad division... now, with the super 2 so close, why not save the few millions and hold him back a few weeks? Two-three million is a lot for this club...

at 2:17 PM

Anonymous said...

Check out this article about Kerry Wood in the NY times. This is a scary trend with young pitchers and the consequences. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/sports/playmagazine/0603play-wood.html?_r=1&ref=playmagazine&oref=slogin

at 3:52 PM

Anonymous said...

Look, you can trot out Brandon Larson (great analogy, by the way), Mark Fidrych, and Kerry Wood, (and Mark Prior and Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez and whomever else) and I'll come back with Doc Gooden (debut at 19 - pitched until 35), Fernando Valenzuela (debut at 20 - pitched until his late 30s), Steve Carlton (debut at 20, pitched 20+ years), Greg Maddux (debut at 20), Tom Glavine (debut at 21), and Roger Clemens (debut at 21). You'll always be able to find an example on either side that proves your point. There's no science to determining whether a pitcher's arm will hold up over the long haul (although Bailey's mechanics aren't at all like Woods' headed-for-disaster motion). He'll be throwing down in AAA every 5th day anyway.

But look, the kid's thrown 300+ innings in the minors. He's dominated every level. It's time to see what he can do. It's time to let him face the only competition that's going to make him better.

I agree with Doc that he should have been up a month ago and that bringing him up now means we may be paying him more earlier, so it kinda makes sense to wait. But, you know what, if the new management is serious about winning, then the 2 or 3 million it may end up costing them isn't that big a deal (it really shouldn't be - Castellini and the Williams' family have enough money and if they didn't want to spend some of it they should have bought real estate and mutual funds, not a major league baseball team).

at 4:16 PM

Rob said...

So you are telling the Reds to do something to save money? Hasnt this team been criticized by talking heads such as yourself for such moves in the past? Come on, they are doing the right thing by promoting Bailey and that is all that matters. Forget money, if Homer turns out to be a phenom, this team will do whatever it takes to keep him here after he reaches arbitration eligibility and beyond.

at 9:47 PM

icee82 said...

I have been fortunate enough to see Bailey's last two starts in the minors. Last Monday in Charlotte, he was overpowering. He had great control of all of his pitches. His fastball topped out at 94 on this particular night. He seemed to have good command of his off speed stuff as it constantly clocked in the low 80's. His curve ball was coming to the plate around 72 but it did not appear to have that much movement on it although it was baffling the Knights. He gave up three hits through seven but gave up two hits in the eighth before being replaced by Todd Coffey. On Saturday night in Durham, it was a different story. He struggled mightily in the first inning and was tagged for a monster home run. However he settled down and kept the Bats in the game. He was charged with four runs and six hits. He pitched only six innings but his last pitch was clocked at 97 MPH. I hope that the Reds are doing the right thing. This season appears to be gone for the most part and I hope they are not dangling Bailey as a PR move to sell tickets. There is a lot of hype around the kid. You could tell on Monday night that most of the fans were there to see Bailey. On Saturday, it was to see Josh Hamilton and Bailey.

Previous Posts

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Homer

20 Comments: