Paul Daugherty: Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes

Shaun Rogers isn't a Bengal. Not only is he not a Bengal, he's a Brown. He's taking his 360-pound self to the middle of Cleveland's D-line. The "historic'' deal Cincinnati supposedly had struck for a guy who'd have been the centerpiece of a revamped defense now will be elsewhere. Ya don't live in Cincinnati, ya live in Cleveland.

The Bengals and Lions -- not quite the beacons of NFL competence -- somehow messed this up. The trade wasnt reported to the league office, it violated some byzantine cap rule, it contained faulty language. Some damned thing.

Point is, the Browns front office had exactly zero problem swooping in quickly and decisively, to steal a very important player the Bengals apparently had been talking with for some time. How does this happen? Has Bengalization become so pervasive, it seeped across state lines into Michigan?

Rogers would have been relatively cheap. He's making $4.25 million this year, $5.25 next and $7 mil in the last year of his deal. He's a 2-time Pro Bowler and would have been perfect for the Bengals' 3-4. Plus, he had attitude issues and off-field problems. Great fit, all around.

Meantime, M. Williams leaves, J. Smith leaves, L. Johnson likely next, This great revamping of the D, to this point, is bringing back D. Jones, a Guy, who last September was surfing. Beautiful.

Can't wait for training camp.

40 Comments:

at 10:35 AM

Anonymous said...

Paul, the Lions and the Cardinals are the NFC versions of the Bengals.
This is what happens when you deal with them.
Too much stupid in one place is sure to breed more stupid.

at 10:54 AM

Anonymous said...

UC Football. UC Football. UC Football.

at 11:04 AM

Anonymous said...

The Bengals wanted a revamped line. There are two directions they could go - up or down. Didn't think they would choose down? Think again, they are the Bengals after all.
Now They will look to the draft and in a couple years they may actually have a developed line. And then, they will be looking for their second winning season in, by then, TWENTY YEARS!

at 11:28 AM

Anonymous said...

This is what we get as Bengals fans for continuing to have hope. A heaping dose of bitter, angry disappointment. Maybe they should sign Odom and draft Ellis and stay a 4-3 defense? Add McRee for depth at safety and have Brooks, Thurman and Jeanty play LB. But this is the Bengals and they will probably screw that up too.

at 11:45 AM

Anonymous said...

Forget UC Football. Reds Baseball. Reds Baseball. Reds Baseball.

at 11:48 AM

Anonymous said...

Who says the Bengals need a General Manager?

at 12:08 PM

BK Radio said...

Guess I should have gotten excited about the alleged unmotivated over-eater while I had the chance early last night.
Anyway no personnel moves change the fact that after five seasons of experience, Marvin still balks in the face of the abyss when it comes to managing a game. "In Marvin We Trust"; that creed's turned to rust. With all of his game management gaffes he has the audacity to condescend to persons the likes of Chick Ludwig(remember that?)regarding football comprehension. That being said, the lion's share of the blame and criticisms always have and do belong to the stubborn Brown family.

at 1:41 PM

Anonymous said...

Let's s-can everyone (from the Browns to the water boy) and start over. Can this get any worse? And why are any of us surprised? Hope springs eternal...unless you are a Cincinnati sports fan. Then hope springs mediocrity. At least high school sports seem to be going ok.

at 1:53 PM

oldtimer said...

Well put, BK Radio.

AS I posted a little earlier on Marc Curnutte's blog, 1 winning season in the last 17 translate out to a 6% chance on AVERAGE of having a winning season this year. And 17 years is how long Mike Brown has been running His Untouchable Kingdom of the Bengalville, along with his bengalized crew of the Nepotistas, erudite and well-eduacated Yes Men of the most insidious kind. And factoring in the statistical reality of parity, you get an even more drastically skewed percentage. Or to put it in layman's terms, the Bengals fall so far below the norm it's a steep climb up to the bottom of Death Valley.

I would say it's inept, but that word has been overused and sounds tired, like the tiger stripes on the Kitty Kats helmets.

I would say it's dysfunctional, but that word's been overused and already claimed for a long time. Just look up the histories of the honorable Mssrs. C. Pickens, C. Dillon, and C. Johnson.

I would say it's laughable, but no one's laughing. Sad is more the appropo word.

So instead I say this.

Oh Lordy Lord of the Football Gods, grant us Bengals fan a miracle of the biggest proportion that you can muster. Undo this mighty wrong that has descended on our heroes in orange and black, this plague of locust-like ineptitude that has left us hungry and thirsty, lost and wandering in the desert of football misery. Teach us to stay home on Sunday and mock the blasphemies of Mike Brown's player management and double speak. Please hear us when we say unto you; nothing short of a miracle will do. We beseech thee, save the careers of Brother Carson, and T.J., and Rudi before it is too late.

Amen.

Failing that, I'm going bowling on Sundays. Three times as much fun than watching the Bengals, and I don't even like bowling that much. And I feel good when I'm done.

at 2:51 PM

The Big O said...

Paul,
I think we as Bengals fans need to do more to put heat on Mikey and embarrass the front office. Put our collective heads together and do something similar to the 'Millen Man March' in Detroit a few years ago. Get a huge number of fans to walk out of the stadium all at once on a nationally televised Bengals Sunday/Monday game, leaving the PBS barren for primetime. Your thougts?

at 5:24 PM

Anonymous said...

"AS I posted a little earlier on Marc Curnutte's blog, 1 winning season in the last 17 translate out to a 6% chance on AVERAGE of having a winning season this year."

Is that really how you think odds work? Ohio State has gone to the national championship time two of the last three years-so that means they have a 66.6% chance of going next year? Nooooo. Each individual season is an individual event and prior records(especially one 17 years ago) don't have that sort of bearing on next year's record. This isn't random chance-there are intangible factors (player performance, player acquisition, injuries, performance of other teams, etc).

at 5:28 PM

BtotheU said...

Paul,

I offering you a handsome reward if you will offer up a 2 page spread about the incompetence of the Bengal's front office, in particular the Brown family, and request that he step aside and bring in someone from outside the family.

If Tony Soprano ran his family and businesses like Mike Brown runs his, he'd be wearing cement shoes in the old Ohio.

I wonder if I can still cancel that $180 check I just sent in last week? I'm such an idiot.

at 8:11 PM

Anonymous said...

Paul, can you explain how the Bengals' salary cap can be better known by Cleveland than it is by the Bengals?

Thanks.

at 9:02 PM

Anonymous said...

Oldtimer, A beautiful post! Amazing that some still pay cash money to go down there & watch. If they eliminated beer sales, the place would be deserted.
That's the only explanation that works for me.

at 9:05 PM

oldtimer said...

5:24

Huh??

I appreciate the feedback, but seriously... cmon. I chose the most general statistic I could find that reflects a team's success under specific management. Winning. I agree wit ya that it's easy to manipulate stats to your own purposes. You dig deep enough into the statistical data bank, paste and cut, and wallahhhhh, a far-fetched BS hypothesis. In other words, lies, dammd lies, and statistics. Fun for the fantasy leaguers. I hate that kind of stuff, too. That's not what I did here.

17 years is more that enough time to assess a guy's record in any field. HOF careers are often shorter than that. So it's enough time to build your own legacy. Course, Brown belongs more in the Hall of Shame. I didn't purposely try to point out just the bad years. I simply couldn't find any good ones. Not many GMs last 17 years in good circumstances, and certainly this one would be long gone and no longer torturing us if he didn't own the team too.

Brown's record, while glaring and sad, is further uglified by the fact that it occurred in a league built on parity. Parity is a rigged system that guaranteess even a child should bea able to field an winning team every 5-6 years or so. Only seriously flawed franchises like Detroit and Cincy manage to defy these odds year after year.

If you think ignoring Mike's total body of work is important, go ahead. If a 6% winning season percentage OVER 17 YEARS is a skewed or meaningless stat, hey, you might wanna apply for a job with the Bengals. They'd love to have you. They don't think winning is important or significant either.

Sorry, but unless things change for the better, and please, show where they are, I'd love it if they did, the 6% number keeps dropping. Even if they stun everybody and post three (!!??) winning seasons in a row, and again WHAT are the ODDS of that, which was my original point, Mike still sits at 20% for his career. And that's a stat you can't twist pretty, no matter how hard you try.

For months I've been asking anybody to tell me when was the last time the Bengals made a trade player for player that worked and helped. Coy Bacon, maybe? James Brooks? NO one can remember. I kept sayin the Bengals don't know how to make good trades. And then this fiasco comes along.

The broken beat goes on. Peace out.

at 10:08 PM

JerBear said...

I consider myself a pretty big Bengals fan, but I honestly don't care what is going on this offseason.

I think apathy is once again settling in for a lot of us Bengals fans.

From afar it sounds like the Bengals are making every bad decision they can.

I'll follow the Bengals once preseason and the regular season starts, but it's just not worth it to spend time worrying about the Bengals terrible moves when the NCAA tournament and baseball are around the corner.

at 10:37 PM

Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Mikey laughs all the way to the bank with the money he makes at the stadium that I am paying for through no fault of my own.

He won't live up to his part of the bargain. So I say to hell with him, let's take back the damn stadium.

I got dibs on his office and furnishings. I figure thats about what I paid for.

at 1:09 AM

Anonymous said...

It is what it is, folks. Mike Brown is a business person first. Sure, he wants to win, but not at the expense of erasing profit margin. He has a franchise monopoly; people continue to show up regardless of whether or not this team makes the playoffs. This enables him to hire who he wants and charge what he wants.

We can talk about people not showing up to games but history shows us that this only occurs when the Bengals hit rock bottom, not when they are somewhat competitive. People in Cincinnati enjoy the experience of professional football. Without competition, there is no reason for him to change his philosophy.

Perhaps UC football can make a dent into the market in the future. Nippert only holds 30k+; would need to go through expansion. My suggestion is that if you are frustrated with the Bengals, focus your energies on UC. Both Kelly and Mick are great coaches and have their programs heading in the right directions. I don't see the point in wasting time, energy, and most importantly, money, on something that is frankly not that enjoyable.

at 9:00 AM

Anonymous said...

No Sunday Buffett? Whatever will my mom do?

at 10:07 AM

Paul Daugherty said...

Gee, I dunno... wipe your nose and cut your meat for you?

at 1:47 PM

Anonymous said...

Losers, losers, losers,..., ad infinitum...

at 6:06 PM

Anonymous said...

just one small comment: not only would bringing back D. Jones be equal to bringing back a guy who last September was surfing, but now he's playing rugby in the offseason. I suppose that's one way to stay in football shape

at 11:06 PM

Anonymous said...

Hamilton County would have been better off letting the Bengals go to Baltimore and investing that money in schools and jobs.

Unless he's a glutton for punishment, I think Marvin Lewis coaches out his contract and takes the first D Coordinator job he can get.

at 12:42 AM

Unknown said...

This in from Mlive.com(part of the story)

The Bengals entered the picture later in the day and the two teams worked out a deal for the two draft picks. The trade was agreed to by the 4 p.m. deadline, but there was a delay over the legal language in the deal that took it beyond the deadline. As a result, the Lions were responsible for paying Rogers a $1 million roster bonus that was due on Saturday (because Rogers would still officially be on the Lions roster at the start of the day).

To work around that, the Lions and Bengals agreed to a provision in the trade that said the Bengals would pay the Lions the $1 million. In addition to that, if Rogers subsequently failed his physical, Rogers' rights would revert back to Detroit and the Lions would have to reimburse the Bengals the $1 million. The Lions agreed to those terms.

According to both sources, the league office rejected those terms because there was no language in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that allowed for an accurate accounting of that money for salary cap purposes. That's what led to all the confusion Friday afternoon. Both teams had agreed to the deal - and that's what was being reported - but there was really no deal.

While the Lions and Bengals were pleading their case to the league office to agree to the contract, the Browns - one of Cincinnati's division rivals - got wind of the impending trade.

Shaun Rogers' agent contacted the Cleveland Browns after the league rejected an earlier trade with the Cincinnati Bengals, according to sources.It's not completely clear who initiated the contact, but Rogers' agent was in touch with the Browns and the long-term contract situation no longer appeared to be a problem. The Lions were then contacted and asked if they were still interested in doing business with the Browns. Leigh Bodden was back on the table and the Lions leaped at it.

But there was still the issue of the $1 million roster bonus and that wasn't going to change. However, Rogers was willing to do something for the Browns, one of the league's up-and-coming young teams, that he wasn't willing to do for the Bengals -- agree to postpone the due date of the roster bonus. That effectively made it a non-issue with the league and opened the door for the trade with Cleveland.

The Bengals were stuck. They didn't want to continue with a trade which might end up costing them $1 million for nothing. Rogers held the hammer because he was the only one who could dictate the terms of the roster bonus payout.

at 8:34 AM

Unknown said...

Paul, do you sense there are a good number of players on this team who simply want to get out of Cincinnati, because they know that this ownership has no intention of building a winning team?

I imagine there are those players who would rather start/play someplace rather than noplace, so Mike Brown will always be able to get bodies to fill out the roster.

But, aren't there the competitive type, the type who love to win, who most of their high school and college lives were winners, who get a rush and a sense of accomplishment from winning? Wouldn't this kind of player count the days until their free agency?

I can imagine college players up for the draft saying to their family, friends, and agents, "Please, anybody but Cincinnati.....Canada, maybe, instead of Cincinnati."

at 10:28 AM

Anonymous said...

Paul:

You have to tell us how the Brown family screwed up the Rodgers sale. It is hard to point to this gaffe as being the defining moment of their ineptness, as the last 18 years have placed them in history as the most incompetent sports owners ever.

at 10:34 AM

Anonymous said...

Paul,
Thank you for this article. Couldn't have said it better (seriously).

Mike in Detroit, Cincinnati, and Cleveland

at 3:18 PM

Anonymous said...

Old timer...

I understand what you are saying-but statistics just can't be used that way. The odds of the Bengals having a winning season next year are far better than 6%. It isn't the arbitrary nature of the dates you've chosen.

Example. From 1981-1998 the 49ers won less than 1 game only once...so 17/18 times they won more than 10 games. Does that mean in 1999 the 49ers had a 94% chance of winning 10 or more games? No! They had losing records the next two years...it didnt' matter what the team had done for the 18 seasons before that-only the composition of the current team versus that of the opposing teams in the present matters.

Injuries, player acqusitions, coaching, other teams performance,luck- etc-are the determining factors. It might be true come August that the Bengals will be likely to have a losing record. But it won't be a 94% chance and odds makers will not use an analysis like you have.

at 5:15 PM

oldtimer said...

3:18

Again, I agree with you in theory, but not in practice. Stats do not exist in a vacuum. They need a "ground zero" point to make sense. And it's this point that I find you incorrect on.

There is NOTHING arbitrary in the Bengals time frame I choose, 1991-2007, It is a very real and complete timeline to present; the entire time Brown has run the Bengals. Completely determinate. Nothin left out. Nothing trumped up. It's your examples in which I find arbitrary timelines, particularly Ohio State the last three years. I would evaluate Tressel's ENTIRE time as head coach to give a reasonable description of his odds at winning.

Winning percentages, batting averages, era, field goal percentages: all these are based on simple math, and very relevant. They're cited by experts and fans all the time as performance measures. Perhaps you're confusing gambling ODDS with my very basic mathematical ODDS, which are based on long term RESULTS. Ws and Ls. They can't be argued with. I agree that odds based on a short period or arbitrary period are skewed and misleading. But you can't argue that right now under Brown the Bengals have a .060 winning season average. And a .940 losing season average. Pathetic.

Yes, luck and talent change circimstances all the time, which sometimes changes results. But these tend to even out over time to where they no longer factor. Injuries, draft positon, age, etc all can throw a curve into a particular season. That's why longshots win occasionally. But even Vegas oddsmakers are comfortable setting odds before the season starts. When the results change, the odds change. Gamblers moan about this all the time. So do oddsmakers, who live in their own slanted world since they are trying to stack the odds enough to make money.

I don't wanna be an oddsmaker, I could care less about gamblers. I'm simply doing a little math to show how inept Brown's Reign of Inadequacy has been. But I ask you one question. If as you imply these random factors such as luck and talent should change the odds in the Bengal's favor once in a while, why do they keep losing? Surely Lady Luck alone would guarantee the Bengals more than one winning season in the last 17.

Fact is, the Bengals front office has conmpletely defied the odds. But opposite the way you suggest. They've managed to beat the odds against being this bad this long. Wondrously.

Gee. Aren't we lucky??

at 5:51 PM

Anonymous said...

Old Timer:

If a batter is a lifetime .250 hitter that does NOT mean he has a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit every atbat. They are NOT the same thing.

at 9:30 PM

Anonymous said...

Elvis Costello rules!

at 12:00 AM

Anonymous said...

As anonymous responding to oldtimer makes clear, we aren't looking at the long term.
A baseball player who plays around 160 games over a career of say ten years bats 250 means that he doesn't hits one out of four then...
...quick calculatin' here...
the Bengals, who play 16 games a season and have been under Mike Brown's management for 17 years and have not reached the playoffs in that time (did they reach the playoffs in that one 9-7 season?), just need 1328 more games to prove they can average making the playoffs one out of four seasons under Mike Browns management.
Personally, I'll be dead or too old to enjoy that day 83 years from now.

at 3:08 AM

Anonymous said...

5:51 & Oldtimer,

If a .250 hitter comes to the plate, up to that point in the season he has gotten a hit one out of four times. That does give some kind of idea how his season is going. One might look at his career stats and learn from them that he is also a .250 hitter there.

I'd say that in your random at bat, it is safe to say that the guy has a one out of four chance of getting on base.

at 3:47 AM

Anonymous said...

Maybe Elvis Costello tour with the Police can arrive at PBS this summer? Or Buffett ? ANYTHING TO REMOVE THE ACRID STENCH OF MEDIOCRITY !

at 8:14 AM

Anonymous said...

5:51 & Oldtimer,

Correction:

At 3:08 I said: "one out of four chance of getting on base."

I meant to say, "one out of four chance of getting a hit."

On Base is a different stat.

at 9:24 AM

Anonymous said...

Paul, not that baseball is important this time of year, what with spring training going on and the sports media being camped out in Florida, but a question:

Do you see any trends developing yet with the Reds?

The Bengals are just too painful to discuss. If I were a college draftee likely to be picked by the Bengals, they'd have to put me on suicide watch. (/sarcasm)

at 9:28 AM

SportsMania said...

Lets not get all too excited here with these free agents. Most of them are free agents for a reason, there team didn't want them.

Anyone who knows anything about pro football knows you build your team through the draft. And that is where we should be upset. We have taken way too many gambles in the draft and then some of our better picks have been hurt. We have drafted players coming off serious injuries (Weathersby and Washington), characters issues (Thurman, Henry, Rucker, Nicolson, etc) and players who have been injured (Irons, Pollack, Perry) and some simply bad picks (Dorsch in the fourth round??, Keiwan Ratliff in the second??)

It all boils down to the Bengals needing better scouting and a solid GM.

at 9:51 AM

oldtimer said...

5:51 et al

A bit of a mea culpa on my part. I've been using "odds" and "percentages" close enough to each other to confuse. Probability and Chance are another couple terms that get used together too often, and leave people scratching their heads. Mathematics has whole books written on the subject. Matices, progression, differential equations. I used to know that stuff and my head still hurts.

A .250 guy DOES have a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit on average. Each at bat he has various percentages to factor in that change his chances, so you're tight. These are determined by numerous variables, many that are intangible. Playing the percentages means that you look at his average in a particular siutation, which managers do all the time, and decide if he is a good risk to het the big hit you need. His odds of making an out are 3-1, not 4-1. And let's be real, who has the better odds of getting a hit, a .250 guy or a .319 guy? Percentages and odds are interrelated.

Personally I like seat of the pants guys like Baker and McKeon. I've always felt that having a feel for the flow of the game, which comes with years of experience, and playing the hot hand, is the best way to "beat the odds". It leads to spectacular successes and failures, and anything specatacular is always entertaining. Plus we see a hunch manager who wins, like Trader Jack, as a magician. And everybody loves a magic show.

Bookie odds have a hedge in them to protect them from losing money. They have to be careful to take the right amount of bets on each competitor so as to cover their behinds. I'm no gam bler, I could lose big at a church festival, but I do remember the many times I saw Pete Edward out at Latonia betting the ponies early in his career. The guy was tried and true Cincinnati, he love to bet the horse. Which around here is a tradition.

at 10:20 AM

Anonymous said...

I vote that we change the name of to the Browns ... The Charlie Browns. Every season, we get excited and feel the promise of a new beginning. We back up 20-25 yards to get a good running start, while Mike Brown (Lucy) makes all the outward appearance of being there for us, our faithful and trusted custodian of the football. And here we come running ... full speed now, head down, eyes on the ball, and then just at the last minute, WOOOOSH ... there is no football there. We fly up-ended in the air in a dust-cloud, and fall almost slow-motion back to earth, to the same painful ending as every other year.

And you see, it is part of the gag ... It has to be this way. Charlie Brown NEVER kicks the football, folks, and the sooner you accept that, the sooner you will move on to watching some other cartoons.

AJ

at 7:35 AM

Anonymous said...

SportsMania, are you kidding?
"Lets not get all too excited here with these free agents. Most of them are free agents for a reason, there team didn't want them."

Most free agents don't leave because their team doesn't want them, they leave for more money....i.e. Justin Smith, Stienbach, Keashvaharn.

A team can build on proven players through free agency easier than betting on unproven players in the draft - and sometimes even save some money. If Mike, Katy, Troy and the other members of the Bengal brain trust would realize this they might gain some ground in the NFL.

Previous Posts

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes

40 Comments: