Paul Daugherty: I Don't Have the Fogg-iest

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

I Don't Have the Fogg-iest

J. Fay says the Reds are interested in Josh Fogg, or a Fogg type. (Fogg-alike? Fogg-Man?) If that's the case, and I wonder if B. Castellini is up for throwing 4-mil at another retread (c'mon, down, C. Lidle and K. Lohse), here's what it says about 2008:

They think they can catch lightning in a bottle.
They hope you do, too.
They're waiting for next year, before this year begins.

It's easy to see where this is headed. Use '08 as an audition for Bailey, Cueto, Maloney and Volquez. Dump Junior's money after the year. Promote Bruce, play Votto all year, mix in a little Stubbs, hope you get lucky and keep fans compelled through Labor Day.

There is no push to add a proven guy with a future, a la Joe Blanton. Money for retreads would be money wasted. Hope springs infernal with our pro sports teams. The future awaits. And awaits...

15 Comments:

at 2:08 PM

Anonymous said...

Or it simply means that they are unwilling or afraid to trade any of their prospects. Happy 50th, by the way. I still owe you that Guinness from last year... On another topic: Adam O'Toole (Jim's Grandson) just returned safely from Iraq duty Monday! He's serving his last few weeks down in TX somewhere.

at 2:58 PM

Anonymous said...

hey, that was my first comment on John Fay's blog ;)

at 3:07 PM

russ said...

Everbody needs to stop being so impatient. We just played one divisional playoff series thirteen years ago. These things take time. Plus, there's no guarantee that pro sports teams will get a postseason appearance every 20 years. People around here just need to learn how to lower there expectations! **To be read as tongue-in-cheek**

at 3:39 PM

Anonymous said...

Start out with the young guys filling out the rotation. Then in July see how things are going and if in contention, spring for a proven starter.

at 5:46 PM

Anonymous said...

It would be a waste of money to sign Josh Fogg. He is not good and has never been good.

at 6:07 PM

Anonymous said...

I agree that adding marginal free agents accomplishes little. I agree it makes little sense to sign Francisco Cordero and then not shore up a number three starter. That said, comparing past years to this year is not fair. In prior years, the future was Brandon LArson, Wily Mo Pena, Brandon Claussen, Jose Acevedo, and Rob Bell.Even the most cynical fan would admit, the collective talents/pedigrees of Votto, Bruce,Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, and Volquez are unprecedented. Can you name a time the Reds have had 4 of Baseball America's top 30 prospects that are major league ready?

at 10:30 PM

Scott Evans said...

Paul,

I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds sign a second teir free agent the more I think about it, though maybe not Fogg. I'd go with one who is more of an innings eater and more importantly a sinking ball pitcher such as Leiber. Besides, with the starting staff they had last year even Fogg would be an upgrade, and in this division it may be enough to win.

And to get a top starter via trade is probably too high of a price. In Bruce we have potentially the next Ken Griffey Jr. In the 4 young arms we could potentially have a 2000s version of the Braves staff from the early 90s.

Besides I've already renewed my season tickets and can't wait until opening day.

at 12:37 AM

Anonymous said...

I agree with the last couple of posters. I think you are way off on this one. Scott Evans has it dead on and I am beyond excited for this season. And don't say I'm exactly who they are playing too because I am a die hard Reds fan, born and raised. I have been pissed off for the past ten years.

However, our future is beyond bright for the next ten. We have Bruce, who will be on the cover of ESPN Magazine next year for the NEXT feature. And having those four pitchers who are almost ready for the big leagues is unheard of in these parts.

I'm willing to give up this year and watch the young talent develop. Pitching wins and you have been saying this for a couple months now. Why give up on these four? I understand your reasoning but what if we trade the wrong two? What if we keep the wrong two? That would be devastating and leave us with the same stuff we have now. Let these guys come up and learn from one of the best in Harang and the decent Arroyo. This will definitely allow these guys to grow up to all be at least decent, and that is the low end.

Look at the Tigers. I'm not gonna go search cause I don't get paid but I am almost certain they had a horrid record and turned it around two years later.

Let us enjoy the beginning of a good ride.

Jake Baker

at 1:29 AM

Anonymous said...

I believe it might be naive to think that every team in this division will remain mediocre. We've witnessed two years of mediocrity in this division and someone is going to step up and begin to win 90+ games, making the Reds task even more difficult.

at 7:12 AM

Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, 208 (Mark)... Great news about Adam... my best to him and his (gigantic) family. And I do think the Reds are a little shy about trading with B. Beane.

at 9:59 AM

Anonymous said...

Paul, let's assume that some smart baseball guy in the Red's organization is not interested in any of the pitchers left in this year's group of remaining first tier pitchers. Let's also say that he knows a better one will be available in 2009.

Why waste money this year on what won't work when you know the next year's deal will work?

I agree with giving the new pitchers a chance to make it. The gamble could pay off. In any case, I see this as a .500 season. (I also agree with you that dumping 3-4 million on some 4.6 ERA also-ran is wasteful, and counters the idea of testing the youngbloods.)

But, would I pass on getting a questionable first tier and a possible .530 season this year in order to achieve a .600 season next year?

I would.

And this city (and me, too) would be delighted just to have a .500 season this year.

It just seems to me that if the Reds are thinking ahead to 2009, then some smart person someplace should be looking at what first tier pitchers they have in their sights.

at 10:05 AM

Anonymous said...

What would a Fogg cost a year vs a Blanton? I assume both would require a multi-year deal.

So if reading between the lines shows '09 to be "the year" in the minds of Reds management, why not get what you want in '08 (aka a Blanton type player)? For '08 it's maybe a few extra $mil in cost. But the Reds would certainly win more games with a better pitcher, and the excitement would add more butts in seats. At $6 a shot, the extra beer sales alone would cover the added cost of a better player, as well as build that team chemistry in the clubhouse starting right now - not next year.

at 11:29 AM

Anonymous said...

Blanton is much cheaper in dollars than fog for next year. But he would cost a couple good prospects to get. And frankly he is just mediocre at best. Fogg would be a waste. Of the free agents out there, Lieber is the best fit for the reds, next best fit might be Benson if he is healthy. Paul, do you know if the Reds were one of the teams that watched him throw last time out?

at 3:28 PM

Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, J-Dig... dont know re Benson... hard to call mediocre a guy who has 42 wins past 3 yrs...

at 4:55 PM

Anonymous said...

Actually I just went back and looked at Blanton's numbers a little closer and he is a little better than I was thinking. But his Numbers would have been much worse in the Great American SmallPark.
His BB/K and and ground ball to flyball ratio both improved last year though.
I just think Oakland would want a lot in return.
I think Bailey's numbers will be as good if not better then Blanton's this year.

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

I Don't Have the Fogg-iest

15 Comments: