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Paul Daugherty
Enquirer columnist files news and observations

Paul Daugherty
Paul Daugherty has been an Enquirer sports columnist since 1994 and has been chronicling Cincinnati sports since 1988. He has covered almost every major sporting event in America, as well as five Summer Olympics. Along the way, he has been named one of the country's top-5 sports columnists four times, and Ohio columnist of the year on seven different occasions. Last year, he was voted 2nd-best sports columnist in the country, by the Associated Press Sports Editors.

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Monday, August 27, 2007

the perfection of 162 games

The best thing about baseball is that, across six months of six games a week, teams almost always get what they deserve. It is the absolute truest regular season in all of sports. Flawed teams are revealed, good teams are rewarded.

The Reds were not nearly as bad as 31-51. Way too much talent, that stayed almost entirely healthy. Consider what would have happened had the Reds lost Harang and Arroyo the whole year, the way the Cards lost Carpenter and Mulder... and the Brewers have lost Sheets.

Conversely, they're not as good as 29-19 under Mackanin. The way they're winning now is not the way consistently good clubs win. You are not going to hit your way out of every tight spot, the way this club mostly has all month. The worst thing that could happen to this team is to finish with 78 or 79 wins and ownership adopt the We're Not That Far Away mentality -- a mostly stand-pat winter, keep the manager etc... and finish with 78 or 79 wins again next year. I havent seen enough encouraging yet from the young starting pitching, for example, that would make me think a big upgrade isnt required.

In March, I said this was a club with .500 talent that with a little luck, a lot of health and a career year or two could make things interesting. A few things have gone better than expected... Junior's year, BP's power, the emergence of Keppinger, Hopper and Burton... a few have gone worse: D. Ross' hitting, Arroyo's inconsistency, Lohse, mostly miserable middle relief...

But all in all, the Reds are only slightly worse than where I guessed they might be by now.

When they finish with 78 or 79 wins, can we please not hear how close they are to being good... see it as a small first step, then make the needed changes...


7 Comments:

at 9:21 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

5 step plan to win NL Central in '08:

1.) Give Mackanin a one-year deal for next year @ $500k. Use the extra money leftover from passing on a big name manager to justify paying Mike Stanton to stay home next year. Related: Thank Eddie Guardado for his service with a firm handshake and a "good luck," as in "good luck wherever you end up."

2.) Keppinger at third base batting second. Edwin Encarnacion's about as good as he's going to get, from where I sit - offensive numbers are actually down this year. Not a good sign. Trade him, let him platoon w/ Hatte at first or use him as a PH off the bench.

3.) Come to grips with the fact that Ryan Freel's not an everyday player. Nice energy guy/good solid backup at multiple positions but that's about it. No room for him in the everyday 9, plus he's not durable enough.

4.) Leverage Joey Votto and Jay Bruce to acquire pitching next year. Dontrelle Willis, Jon Garland, Steve Trachsel, Johan Santana (!) could be had by the right bidder in the coming offseason. Votto's a strikeout factory that hasn't proven anything at the big league level; no room for Bruce in a Hamilton/Dunn/Griffey outfield.

5.) Restructure Bill Bray's contract to explicitly bar him from participating in any offseason activities that could result in him breaking his finger.

 
at 9:36 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well said. For now, they are definitely more fun to watch.

How unhappy is Dunn with the Reds (and fans) right now? I am 95% sure that I saw him turning onto Pete Rose Way heading towards Mt. Adams less than 10 minutes after the final out yesterday. He wasn't hard to miss in a black sports car (I'm thinking Aste Martin(?)) with Texas plates.
Maybe he had somewhere to be, but I don't think he stuck around long enough for a shower.

You can argue to trade or keep him, but after a win and sweep like that - I hope he's not turning into a bad seed in the clubhouse especially at this point...

 
at 10:43 AM Blogger Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, 936: I wouldnt read anything into that. Dunn's not a bad teammate. In fact, he's well-liked. My observation re Dunn is, he could make a big impression on impressionable kids if he spent more pre-game time prepping for the game... he's very relaxed in his approach... he has the talent to get away with it, though I think if he applied himself the way others -- Hatteberg, for one -- do, he could truly be a superstar... kids w/less ability see how Dunn does it, think they can do the same... but he's a good guy, fun to be around etc., not at all a bad clubhouse influence.

 
at 7:17 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

trade votto for a real, good starting pitcher? sure, why not. a club should always be able to fill a 1b hole

trade bruce? no way!! junior and dunn could both be gone after '08, and bruce could make us forget both - at least the cincy version of jr., not the seattle one

 
at 9:17 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

So Doc (10:43 AM) > Dunn is a good guy (agreed). Doesn't this team need a LEADER/LEADERS? Who's your pick?

 
at 7:56 AM Blogger Paul Daugherty said...

Hey, Dave...

Tony La Russa

 
at 10:25 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wouldn't read too much into Dunne
being gone ten minutes after the game. They had to be in Pittsburgh
for a 5pm game so there probably
wasn't a lot of time to hang around.

I wouldn't trade Bruce and Votto.

 
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