The Math
I've been having an ongoing e-mail discussion w/a couple Reds fans who think the team is poised for some miracle run to the Central title. P. Mackanin has mentioned it as well. As bad as this division is -- and it's historically lousy, maybe only the '73 Mets, I believe, won a worse division -- here's what our Redlegs would likely have to do:
If we assume the winner will get to, say, 83-79 -- and we can assume that, right? I mean somebody has to get a little hot, don't they? -- the 53-68 Reds would have to go 30-9 the rest of the way.
Anyone see that happening with a starting rotation that includes Dumatrait, Livingston and TBA? Mackanin has to be optimistic... but talking about winning 10 in a row? Longest streak is, what, five? Big winning streaks mean consistent pitching, not winning 11-9 every night. Beyond A. Harang and D. Weathers, who's consistent? (Consistently good, I mean.) The Reds buried themselves in their first 82 games... even good teams don't rally from 20-under .500...
It's a nice thought, though.
posted by Paul Daugherty at 8:40 AM
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Post a Comment*Doc,
You're right. Taking the division's a little far-fetched at this point.
But I have to say, the emergence of Jared Burton and the return of Bill Bray have been encouraging, to say the least. They're a couple of nice cornerstones upon which to rebuild the bullpen. Having Hamilton back in the lineup is nice, Keppinger appears to be a legit quality at bat...things are looking up.
A good offseason could put the Reds right in the middle of contention next year even without any drastic changes. I doubt I'm alone when I say that I count DFA'ing Stanton as a critical part of a "good offseason" - no more multi year deals for guys on the wrong side of 40!
I must agree that I don't see the Redlegs putting together a "miracle run", as you so eloquently put it, at least during the remainder of this season. However, perhaps Mack Attack feels the only way he has a slim chance at keeping his job beyond the upcoming month is to push confidence, something this organization has been severely lacking the past half decade. He obviously has convinced someone, given you're arguing remotely with those who have bought into his thoughts.
Most in the area that follow the Red Stockings on any kind of basis have felt nothing but contempt the past 7 or so years. After the run of 1999 and bringing KGJ home, no one has thought AT ALL that something special could happen. It appeared to me that this negative thinking began with KGJ's first injury in red and white. Then there was another injury and that's all people have paid attention to since.
I'm not saying some strong confidence is a bad thing. But it's also a pretty good idea to think realistically. It looks like the Brew Crew has finally come back to Earth and I think everyone knows the Cubbies could do the same at any point. However, it is my personal feelings that this year may be lost in terms of contention and at this point should be filled as a sort of audition for the youngsters.
But feel free to keep your head in the clouds, boys.
I agree Paul. BUt, this upsurge is also not a fluke. Mackanin has defined bullpen roles lately such that Bray,Burton, and Weathers for the first time give you some inkling that there is a plan and a possibility. Keppinger and Hopper have added some intangibles to the lineup. Dunn/Encarncacion/Gonzalez/Freel/ Ross, and the SP du jour will always be a strike out prone, rally killing offense with more holes in their swing than Dunkin Donuts. You cant run out that lineup and expect anything other than strikouts and a poor appraoch at the plate. Adam Dunn with the right personnel hitting around him is ok.
If the Reds turn over the bullpen outside of BUrton,Bray,Weathers and maybe Majeski add a veteran number 2 starter to Arroyo/harang and the young arms and continue to surround Griffey and Dunn with disciplined hitters like Hatteberg/Keppinger/Hopper- they will be a better team.
Nice faux pas in a post titled "The Math". For the Reds to go 83-79 when they're 53-68 they need to go 30-9? 79-68=11 last time I checked. My public school education teaches me that that requires 30-11. Still requires some kind of a record breaking run, true.
Hey, Joe...that's why I write for a living...
For what it is worth I'm just glad management didn't tank the season. We could have done the standard cash dump. We didn't, you may or may not agree with the move... but I appreciate the non-dump.
Instead of saying, "Okay, time for me to eat a plate of crow..." in the rare (miraculous) case that the Reds DO win the division, what will Paul Daugherty do if they pull it off? C'mon, dude...if you're gonna write what you do, what'll you promise--here in print for permanent record--to do if the Reds pull it off? A decent "I was wrong" for the first time in your career would be nice, but what can you think of that'd be a bit fancier?
Reds have no chance...they trail 3 teams by 6+ games, not gonna happen folks. Also, I'm thinking the approach should be one game at a time (I know its a cliche) instead of 8 or 10 in a row.
JB
Since the all-star break the Reds are 1 game over .500. Since PM took over the Reds have overtaken exactly 1 team in the NL Central. At the current pace the Reds would seem poised to make a run at 4th place. It's funny what a couple of wins can do to the rational thinking of some folks.
Hey Doc,
Are these new postings or did you recycle excerpts from recent years and change just the names, such as Miley and Narron to Mackanin. As far as pitching, my memory's too clouded right now; saturated with memories of mediocre relievers from Christmas Past, so fill in any names you can remember to replace the current ones mentioned(I'll exclude Bray).
I trust the majority of this baseball town's fans ARE knowledgable and they see a pattern here: The Reds are out of contention; playing loose with no pressure, and based on a better post-manager-change record, some may say "hey this interim manager could be special...". While I'm at it, I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that next spring training we'll be told(AGAIN) that Dunn's working hard on his defense(but still weighs 290+) and is modifying his lumbering swing for better at-bats. MAKE HIM PLAY FIRST TO EARN MY FAITH IN THE REDS MGMT. I know I know. It won't happen.
Castellini told/sold us that he'll put not only a winner, but a champion on the field. Well he didn't buy the team 15+ years ago. It was no secret when he bought the Reds that you have to pay for a winner in baseball today. Thanks, I know about the Marlins and Anaheim and
Arizona. Spending a chunk of change doesn't guarantee a champion, but it gives you better odds than staking a guarantee on the premise that we'll be one of the next odds-defying small-market teams.
If only we could morph Castellini's intent with Lindner's wallet(correct me if I'm wrong, but I heard that he is/was one of the wealthiest owners in sports).
Build this team around Harang, Phillips, and Hamilton (possibly Bailey-jury's out).
Doc you may remember me from my critical contribution regarding the Bengals a couple days ago. I don't fault myself or any other Cincy sports fan for being critical or jaded about our two pro sports teams. We have optimism too, it just isn't as interesting to write or read.
I'll be 38yrs old September 11th, and the one golden memory I own as a Cincinnati sports fan is obviously the 1990 Reds. I'd like to forget the two Bengal Super Almosts. All I remember from 75' or 76' was an image of Johnny Bench getting champagne poured over his head, but 90' I was old enough to savor. Us Cincy fans are salivating for another winner, savoring dilutes a little after 17 years.
Didn't we used to have these same conversations during the lost Bengal decade.
Try and rationalize why a bad team was really good. Season after season after season.
the previous poster is a perfect example of the idiocy and lack of knowledge of so many sports fans...with regards to Dunn (MAKE HIM PLAY FIRST)?????? Did it ever occur to you that he CAN'T play first? You are probably one of the same people who complain that Dunn is lazy...as a lazy person, don't you think he would RATHER play first where there is far less running involved? If you recall, they tried putting him at first last year in spring training and he couldn't do it.
More Math:
In his first 7 seasons, Barry Bonds hit 23% (or 176) of his current 760 homers.
In his first 7 seasons, Adam Dunn has hit 232 homers. If that represents 23% of what he'll eventually hit, we're looking at 1000+. Go ahead and laugh, then remember what ballpark he plays in. Idiots would trade Dunn, so Krivsky will probably do so soon.
Adam Dunn is a Cincinnati Red and should remain so throughout his career.
And I also think we need to consider the likelihood of taking the NL this year. If it isn't going to be the Mets or maybe Phills, the NL Winner will be from the West, not the Central. The Cubs and Brewers can't sustain. If the Reds end up making a decent run and even get near a 66% win mark, I'll consider the season a success, especially if they can recover from the Bill Bray, Majewski debacle trade by restoring those assets. We've been living with the pain of that trade since it happened, period. It is probably the sole reason we haven't made post-season runs the past two years. Restoring pitching does not mean trading Dunn or Griffey. Arroyo, maybe. I would even consider Freel, who is a liability with his playing style (hate to say it). You can fault Dunn for poor fielding, but he's in the lineup, not Freel.
Wow Anonymous. You really blew up my entry by isolating one piece and contending that Dunn isn't a first baseman. Very insightful.
In the grand scheme of the Reds this subject isn't even worth arguing any further, but it appears you'd rather suffer with him in left for another season than one more attempt at damage control. You are obviously a perfect example of a knowledgable sports fan. I'm sure your husband is too.
Cliff,
As Doc has pointed out time and time again, it is not a baseball thing with dropping Dunn. It is money pure and simple. At a $75 million payroll, you cannot keep Dunn. I don't see the powers that be willing to bump payroll to $100 million, to keep Dunn and bring in pitching. In a perfect world, you keep Dunn in this batting practice stadium and see how close to 800 HR's he gets. This aint a perfect world though.
Yeah, why trade Dunn? You're not going to get a quality pitcher or reliever for him. The fans like to watch him (even his adventures in the field). Every team needs a galoot. Problem is they dont' have a lot of trade bait otherwise. Homer?
Here is what I don't understand. We have a stadium that is a power hitter's wet dream.
Yet we have a general manager that wants to move the club towards playing small ball.
I hate the fact than Dunn is inconsistant I'm a huge critic. I think he could be so much better. Think about it though, we can't manufacture runs... if he isn't here how the heck do we ever score?
$100 million?!?! What?!?! That's not only a weak cop-out, it's a gross overstatement.
Dunn's making $10 mil. this year and our payroll is $68 mil. That includes the more than $14 mil. we're paying Cormier, LaRue, and Milton not to play here. So make Dunn's salary $13 mil. and we're not even to $60 mil. yet.
We re-upped Arroyo, so he'll make about $4 mil. next year plus a $2.5 mil. signing bonus paid next year, up from $4.125 he makes this year. He then gets $9.5 mil. in '09 and $11 mil. in '10.
Harang will get $6.75 mil. next season, up from $4.25 mil. this season. He then gets $11 mil. in '09 and $12.5 mil in '10, with a club option of $12.75 mil. in '11.
So we have about $71 mil. committed to Harang and Arroyo over the next 4 years, $13.25 mil. of which is paid next year, up from about $8.5 mil. this year. So that's $5 mil. more we're spending on them next year than this year. That still leaves us about $6 mil. short of our current payroll in '07 (assuming we exercise Dunn's option).
We'll probably try to sign Phillips to a deal (though he has several years of arbitration left) so some of that money will go there. We also might try the same with Hamilton (though I will scream if we give him a long term deal - way too many injuries, way too little play).
So we're no where close to $100 mil. We're not even at $70 mil. We'll probably try to sign some free agents, which should up the payroll a little (I don't know who we'll go after).
But why should we let Castellini off the hook with our woe-is-me small market mantra? He's freaking loaded!!! The Reds made $22 mil. in profit last year - 7th in the league. Obviously, the value of the franchise isn't growing as fast as that of the Yanks, but he's making more cash on his team at the end of the year than Big Stein. Why shouldn't Castellini put that money back into the team instead of in his investor's already bulging pockets? I thought they wanted a winner. If they just wanted to make money, they should have bought mutual funds or real estate. Plus, maybe if he upped payroll, we'd be better. Then more fans would show up, more beer would be drank, and there wouldn't be any reason to have dollar hot dog and half priced ticket nights. Maybe he'd make more money!!!
Is Castellini going to starve if he breaks even for a few years? He'll obviously make money whenever he sells the team (partly due to the publicly financed stadium).
Paul, why won't anyone call out these multi-, multi-, multi-millionaire owners that say they want to "bring championship baseball back to Cincinnati," but then don't do what needs to be done to make it happen? If it's just another business deal for him, fine. But don't tell us you're a real fan and are intent on winning now.
You know the Reds have really become a very bad franchise. This is the 7th or 8th losing year in a row and the Reds last playoff victory was 95', 12 years ago. The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since 91? vs. Houston Oilers.
Then you have the Bearcats who will go to their 6th bowl game in 8 years, this year, and they can't get a sellout, unless WVU brings fans, at Nippert (35,000 capacity).
Keep paying those salaries for those millionaire losers.
Well, I'm with you to some degree, Anon 4:11. But what bowls did UC play in and whom did they play? There are so many bowls now that saying they played in 6 bowls in 8 years doesn't tell me a whole lot. They've been just as mediocre as the Reds and the Bengals the last few years. It looks like they're on the upswing though, but still, the International Bowl in Toronto vs. Central Mich. or whoever isn't very appealing to the common fan.
What it should tell you is 6 of the last years they have had winning records. Neither of our pro teams can sniff that.
"Well, I'm with you to some degree, Anon 4:11. But what bowls did UC play in and whom did they play? There are so many bowls now that saying they played in 6 bowls in 8 years doesn't tell me a whole lot. They've been just as mediocre as the Reds and the Bengals the last few years. It looks like they're on the upswing though, but still, the International Bowl in Toronto vs. Central Mich. or whoever isn't very appealing to the common fan"
UC can only get the Bowl Game they qualify for. And last year they should have had the CarQuest Bowl vs. Boston College, but somehow Navy had a 1 year deal for that Bowl. Nothing UC could do about it.
What about the regular season games at Nippert, why does that not appeal to the common fan? My beef is with UC Alumni, not the common fan. I have never seen Football fans so jacked up for 8-8 Bengal Teams. It amazes me. Also 2 UC football season tickets are $200-300, can't beat that deal.
The other really bad deal for the Big East is that ND, if they are not BCS Bowl eligible, can take a bowl game away from the Big East. This is bull.
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