Nobody else got Bedard either
But disappointment should rule the day. To add Cordero and not a quality starter is half a loaf. Right now, the Reds arent good enough to challenge in the weak Central. A. Harang is all you can count on. I don't include Arroyo, because he's not consistent. After those 2, the dropoff is dizzying. And getting someone like Lieber or Tomko is a waste of time.
Lots of time before April, and I still think ownership intends to win now. But part of the reason you have good prospects is so you have people to trade. By acquiring Cordero, ownership expressed a willingness to play for Now. If they don't add a quality starter, they're stuck between Now and Later, which doesnt work.
posted by Paul Daugherty at 12:21 PM
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Post a Comment*I disagree that Arroyo wasn't consistent. He threw 22 quality starts last season. Would have had several more but was left in games after too many (110+) pitches.
Look at his game by game stats here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4416
Arroyo is solid as a #2, Belisle ok as a #3.
I do agree we need one more top pitcher to compete. But that be Bailey, Maloney, or Cueto.
REC 9-15 | SV 0 | ERA 4.23 | WHIP 1.40
Yeah...these are the most important stats to look at. How many playoff teams had a #2 with 15 losses? ERA and WHIP=nothing to shake a stick at as well.
Belisle? Are you kidding?
As long as we're content with finishing middle of the pack in a weak divison...sure, pitching staff looks great. Cripes.
The problem with relief pitchers is that they don't seem to last long. That means that the Reds have bought 3 years, in my opinion, at the most.
So, if success equals winning the central division, then the Reds need not panic. If success equals winning the NL pennant, then they better get real busy. If success equals winning the World Series, then they need to send in an order for Miracle Max.
For 2008, this city would sell their firstborn for a contender in September, and their soul for a division win. Therefore, the starter they seek, Paul Daugherty, need not be any better than average this year.
Who is available next winter is the real question. That'll leave them with 2 years in Cordero's arm.
Just to point out again.
Last year, Dontrelle Willis had the same season as Matt Belisle and did without pitching half is games in GASP.
I'd like to get Bedard too, but there is no indication that Bailey/Votto/Freel or similar deals would have necessarily gotten Bedard.
I still wouldn't trade Bailey. It's not because I think he's going to be a future #1, you just can't tell yet. They have holes in the rotation. Usually a hole means a spot taken a bad pitcher, but in the Reds case, there are spots unfilled. If you trade Bailey for Bedard, then you still only have 4 starters, and one of them is Belisle. It appears they'll have no choice but to go to the scrap heap for a starter.
Doc,
Arroyo had a run of bad starts when it was pretty obvious that his arm had been abused. His ERA for the month of April was 2.86. His ERA for May was 6.45. His ERA was at its losest point on May 16th after his 8 inning CG loss to San Diego, in which he threw 129 pitches. He then had a run of 6 bad starts, in which is velocity was down and he had lost his location. It was pretty obvious, with him topping out at 86 that he was fatigued. His ERA for the month of June was 5.23, and his overall ERA topped out on June 17th at 5.24, and it began to decline after that. His ERA for July was 2.62. In August he had one awful start in which he only pitched 1.2 innings, which inflated his August ERA to 4.91 which isn't horrible. He had a September ERA of 3.29. His WHIP was a little higher then I would like, but during that 6 game stretch in May and June his WHIP was 3.11, so that is quite inflated. The Red's rode Arroyo hard, he led the NL in innings in 2006, and he pitched in Japan that off season. I will take Arroyo on my staff any day. If Belise or Bailey take a small step forward, they have 3 or 4 good pitchers. Plus I like Cueto in the 5 spot. They contend next year, and rock and role in 2009. If they trade Cueto and/or Bailey, for Bedard, it is not wise. They would be better right now, but Bedard won't stick around. Bailey and Cueto will be Reds untill 2012 and 2013(atleseat) respectivly. Bruce is the best prospect in the world, and if the Red's let Votto go they don't have anyone to play firstbase after this season. This is the first time in my short life the Red's have had a fruitful farm team, lets not trade the farm for the short term. By 2010 it is possible Harang will be the number 3 starter behind Bailey and Cueto, I would sure love to see that happen. Which prospect do you wish to trade Doc?
Boomer Wells is available. Heh.
This has nothing to do with this thread but my comment relates to your article today, Daugherty. Lay off the whole, "Play more, Dorsey, blah, blah, blah." Dorsey is good, we get it. And they gave him the ball. He made plays. But he is not a feature back. And what was wrong with what Rudi did in the second half? Rudi was picking up chunks of yardage at at time. Look at Dorsey's body. Do you think he can pound the ball over the course of a game? No. He is powerful but only in spurts. Should they have given him more than one carry in the second half? Yes. But it wasn't a sin that they did not. I will say this: I would like to see Dorsey return some punts because Chatman isn't cutting it. You guys are never satisfied because it is as if you have tossed Kenny Watson to the wayside after you lamented him the second coming of whoever the last marginal running back was to come off the bench and make some plays.
What I do like is that next year's training camp is going to be interesting if they keep all the running backs; there will be some healthy competition and guys will have to fight, unlike this year when injuries made them scrape the barrel. That goes for linebackers also; draft one, keep Dhani Jones, return of Ahmad Brooks, etc. If guys no their livelihood is on the line, they will fight harder.
Live Big.
Totally agree re prospects. Prospects can be helpful one of two ways: 1.) they eventually become solid contributors to the big league club; or 2.) they are leveraged in trades to acquire players who are ready to be solid contributors immediately. A lot of baseball fans seem to forget that second part.
But trading one starting pitcher for another seems to me to miss the point. The Reds have four starting pitchers currently, a Bailey plus prospects deal for Bedard would still leave the Reds with four starters. I'm not sure that necessarily puts the Reds in a better position to contend next year, for a number of reasons.
Unti baseball handles the problems in market size and revenue sharing.
This conversation is a waste of time.
The best the Reds can hope for is to catch lightning in a bottle one year and win.
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