Reds' pitching
I know it's spring training and everyone is supposed to be optimistic. And I do think the Reds will be better this year than last. But the notion they'll challenge for anything but .500 with the pitching the way it is now is incurably optimistic.
Everyone seems to believe only 2 spots need to be filled in the rotation. Everyone assumes M.Belisle will be much better than 8-9, 5.32. Why?
Everyone takes for granted that Bronson Arroyo will put up #2 starter numbers. Why? Since June 19, 2006, Arroyo is, I believe, 14-23. If not, very close.
Everyone assumes a couple of the unproven young guys will suddenly bloom into 12-15 game winners, which is what they'll need to be for the Reds to make September relevant.
Listen, I hope it's all true. I just don't see the evidence. Either they bring in Blanton at some point, or they don't win.
45 Comments:
Hopefully, this will be forgotten when the miracle Reds of '08 win the National League crown, and Jr. plays in his first series.
I picked up the above quote from the Clemons/'roid blog post.
Another one of those "spring hopes eternal" Reds fans.
Sorry, it's not going to happen. Pitching and defense make the team, with a "think out of the box" approach to player personnel, neither of which the Reds have.
Having better starters would be nice. However, please do some research on the 1990 Reds. Browning and Rijo anchored the staff but the others were average. They won the same way the 2008 Reds will win...bullpen.
We're on the same page, Paul. I hope Volquez, Bailey, Cueto etc. end up with the numbers their Baseball America-fueled hype indicates are their divinely-ordained destiny to put up, but it's merely a hope and not a reasonable expectation for such unproven and untested hands. Once again, all of my buddies are telling me, "Just wait until 2009." We've been a year away for at least ten years now, right? Is this getting old for anyone but me?
I really feel the same way about the offense as I do the pitching. Dunn and Phillips are really the only sure things for me on offense. Will Eddie finally be the guy we know he can be? Will Gonzalez at least get on base on occasion? Is Votto going to be the guy we saw in September? Will Griffey survive as much of this season as he did last season? Is there anyone on this team who can play center everyday or who is, in the case of Bruce, ready to play center everyday? Can David Ross at least not be an offensive liability?
I often recall these days how optimistic going into the 2001 season too after two straight second-place seasons. We had a young Casey, young Dmitri Young, 30-year-old Junior, five-tool Aaron Boone, slick-fielding Pokey Reese, and brilliant prospects like Dunn, Kearns and Larson on the way, we were told. While the pitching situation wasn't nearly as attractive, there was still reason for hope about young men like Dessens, Reitsma, Graves and Williamson. And we know how it turned out then. This 2007 team might give Reds fans the most to be optimistic about since that time in the earliest days of the new decade, but whether or not this group of young men will eventually give us the most to cheer about since, say, 1999 or 1995 or (dare I say) 1990 really remains to be seen.
Paul,
Have you taken a good look at Blanton's numbers outside of his home park?
2006 - 7-7 with a 5.12 ERA
2007 - 7-5 with a 5.11 ERA
It seems that we already HAVE that pitcher in Matt Belisle...
Now, you are willing to tell me that you would trade our top pieces away for a pitcher who, outside of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, has similar numbers to Belisle?
Tell me that you are joking, Paul...I would much rather run Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Bailey, and whomever does the best of the others, than trade, now, for a pitcher with a barely above .500 record who has pitched half of his games in Oakland...
There has to be a reason, Paul, that the Reds, or someone else, has yet to pull the trigger on this trade. I think, if you look above, you'll see why.
Blanton just isn't that good. Not good enough to mortgage the future.
If we could get Blanton by trading from strength then by all means go get him. But I can't see trading a Homer Bailey or a Johnny Cueto for him. Blanton has never been a world beater, unless he makes a drastic improvement I don't see him as anymore than a solid #4 on a contending team. Thus, we still need help from Bailey, Cueto, et al.
How come nobody is interested in all of the great 'arms' that Wayne Krivsky has stockpiled? You would think we could get something for them, as highly as Mr Krivsky thought of them. Coffey, McBeth, Salmon, Majewski, Bray and even Belisle; can no one else see the talent there?
Not sure why everyone is do down on Blanton... a #4 starter? Really? A guy who won 16 2 years ago and 14 last year? If the Reds could get Jake Peavy, would you complain and say he's a creation of Petco Park? Blanton won 42 last 3 years... was he 42-0 at the Coliseum? He won 7 at home last year, and 7 on the road...ultimately, don't wins mean more than ERA? Isnt it possible he had the same home/road record because A's hitters got him more runs on the road? And really, no one should compare this bullpen to the '90 crew, or even Arroyo to Browning, for that matter...plus, that club got 12 wins from all star Jack Armstrong... anyway, it's a great debate and I appreciate the feedback...keep it coming...
It's like a disease. One blogger posts something about Blanton's home and away ERA splits then everyone copy cats that stat from thread to thread, blog to blog without looking more closely.
in 2006, Blanton had a start in which he gave up 9 earned runs in Detroit in 4 innings and another giving up 8 in 6 innings at Baltimore.
With 19 of his 34 starts on the road, he allowed 3 runs or less in 12 of those starts. His road ERA without the two blowouts is 4.03. He also had 8 quality starts.
Yes, this pitcher would absolutely kill the Reds.
One of the main things I look at is hits per inning. Blanton's is not impressive. Once in a while bad pitchers win a lot of games. Jimmy Haynes, Eric Milton to name a couple. I put Blanton above that but not good enough to put the Reds over the top. So why give up someone who possibly can?
Is Blanton really THAT good? We've all heard the tireless comments through the years of how we can't/don't develope our own SP. Well folks, here we are. We've got 2 pretty good ones ready, along with the others that we've traded for. I'd like to see us get that monkey off of our backs much more than seeing Blanton in Red.
Off to watch Daytona!
It's simple. If I'm giving up an A player, then I want an A's worth of value out of the trade.
If I give up an A+ player, then....same.
Paul, you want to know what really has me nervous about this trade: Kearns and Lopez. That is one of baseball's all time greatest totally braindead trades.
Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, then you might as well torch me and put me out of my misery.
Paul, got a question. If you put Dusty and Marvin in a room together, alone, to discuss their interview techniques, ie: being open and forthcoming, do you think M would loosen up w/info? Would it stifle D? I'd wish for the former.
People can make all the excuses they want, but Blanton was horrible on the road last season.
Look at the huge difference in hits per inning at home and on the road.
Home: 110.1 Innings, 93 Hits
Road: 119.2 Innings, 147 Hits
Do you guys really think hes going to pitch as good at GABP as he has at McAfee/Cisco?
Paul...
You can tack this up on your bulletin board.
If the Reds start Adam Dunn and Junior every day, they will never be more than a 0.500 ballclub at best. Dunn's hitting and fielding mechanics are terrible. Junior can no longer play at full speed in hot weather. I saw him last August in a few games. He could hardly move. He was doubled over (hands on knees) before, during and after pitches. I thought he was rooted out there.
It really doesn't make any difference who pitches. You either go with the enthusiastic, high-energy youngsters or watch more of the same ambling we are so used to seeing from the veterans...especially Junior.
Anon 2:07, why are you so down on the Kearns/Lopez trade?
Neither have them have done anything since they left here, and they didn't do all that much while they were here. We needed pitching, and we had to give something up to get something...didn't really work out for either team. Sometimes that happens.
I would love to see a rotation of Harang-Arroyo, and a bunch of youngsters this year. We haven't had a winning season in forever, I can wait one more year to see what we have with our young guns.
I say no to the Blanton trade for that reason alone. I would have given up Bailey and Votto for Bedard, but since that wasn't possible, I'm perfectly content in seeing what these guys can do...
Go Reds!
Paul, if you think this is no better than a .500 team (and I totally agree w/ you on that), then why trade a good chunk of the future for Blanton? So we can win 83 games instead of 81? What's the point?
I responded to an old post recently in which you talk about the Reds needing to "dare to be good" or something like that. Again, I agree with you on that.
But trading Blanton is not DARING to do anything. It's trading the possibility of greatness (Bailey, Cueto, etc.) for almost-guaranteed, um, OK-ness.
Daring to be great is hanging on to Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Votto, and Bruce and seeing what we've got.
Cueto, Bailey, etc. are stocks.
Blanton is a savings account.
Let's choose the high-risk, high-reward option for once. Cincinnati has been too "savings account" for too long.
Let's go for it -- keep the kids.
Quit being ignorant Paul. Look up your stats before you just start running your mouth and making yourself look stupid. You make decent points but fall on your face completely when you start talking statistics.
9:18, Kearns has a good lifetime average with a few excellent seasons. He was .266 last year, and he's an excellent fielder. When with the Reds his average was also in the .270 range.
Lopez has about a 250 average and in 2005 he had a great season for Cincy. I forget which of the musical managers decided not to use him the very next year. Again, Lopez was a good glove.
For that we got also-ran minor leaguers and a few broke-arm, washed up major leaguers who supposedly could pitch. We've had a behind-the-scenes war going with the Nationals who we believed snookered us bad on that trade.
So, it's pretty clear.
We got nothing for something. Kearns and Lopez average about 4 million in pay.
Guardado, Majewski, and the Unknowns are making how much this year?
Patrick, I must have missed all the statistics you laid out in your post. Let's try this again: Blanton, 42 wins last 3 years. Cueto: 0. Maloney: 0. Bailey: 4. I don't know what your crystal ball says. You didnt mention it. My statistics show Blanton worked 230 innings last year, more than 600 in the last 3. They also show the Reds 15th in the NL in ERA and 14th in HRs allowed. They show M. Belisle at 8-9, 5.32 as your 3rd starter and B. Arroyo 14-23 since 6/19/06 as your #2.
I know the blog is a free for all and people can post whatever they like anonymously. But it would help the discussion and serve the intended purpose if savants such as yourself added to the discourse with something beyond how stupid you believe me to be.
Good point about Arroyo's numbers, Doc. I'm not on the Bronson bandwagon. He tends to wear down fast in the middle of games and his stuff becomes average to poor at best. His curve turns into a hanger and it's boom, boom, boom. Another loss. No I love Bronson's courage, but his arm...ehhhhhh.
Here's where a better bullpen changes things. He goes six or seven this year and Dusty gets him out of there.... quick. There's five more wins right there. And his arm stays stronger.
Oakland wants far too much for Blanton. His numbers remind me of another great pitcher..... Eric Milton. At the current price it's a bad trade. Let it go. He's been on the market for months. Why hasn't anyone touched his price tag? Too high. The Reds need another decent starter, actually two or three, but there are going to be guys available during spring, who no longer fit where they are. Kriv's made some good spring deals. I'll wait for that deal.
Don't touch the kids....not yet. Let it play out in spring. This is the deepest batch of young talent they've ever had...by far. Smart assessment of talent could mean trading the right kids and keeping the good ones. Potential still has value on the market. Cull the least valuable. The Big Red Machine was built from the farm system and they didn't turn out too bad. Yeah the Reds sat on their hands too many times in the past. Don't throw out the baby with the bath water.
On paper this team is better only if some youngsters develop. It's a good gamble. Votto and Bruce look like natural hitters, a la Hopper and Keppinger. Pitching prospects should provide at least one success. Much better bench. Offensively the Reds have to have some get-on-base guys hitting .300 at the top of the lineup to succeed. Catching is a complete liability. Five games over .500 would be a very good season.
Paul, I agree totally with your post! W.K. has not done near enough to improve the pitching/team.This is why Bob C. has replaced him with Walt J.! I,m joining the growing group that says....WAKE UP CINCY FIRE KRIVSKY.....(ANGRY IN DAYTON)
Oh and re the ststs freaks...
Basic stats are valuable, beyond that they're for the fantasy leaguers and leave me cold. The ad nauseam recitation of picayune numbers puts me to sleep. Who cares if a guy got to second base more in the sixth inning than any other inning? Woop de dooo.
Arguing over third-level-deep stats is boring. Things like leadership, confidence, and heart can't be found anywhere on the stat sheet. These are the mark of championship teams. Individual numbers are so misleading.
Scouts get out and watch guys play. Intangibles like attitude and hustle show up on the field, not in the box score, and are the difference between two guys of like talent. Stats only reflect the past. A lot changes as the body ages. Look at Mike Stanton.
The important stat for Blanton is that he pitches 200 innings every year, which means you are getting quality starts every 5th day. It's pointless to compare wins and losses with Oakland because of all the factors that go into it (i.e. run support). If a pitcher can get you to the seventh inning with a chance to win, he's worth it.
Brad
oh snap!! how 'bout that "patrick"??
i'd love to hear a rebuttal. perhaps stats instead of namecalling.
I'd like to see Blanton on the Reds, but you can't give up for him what you were willing to give up for Bedard. He's just not as good, plain and simple. He's better than most of what the Reds have, but you can't give up the farm just to make a trade.
Paul, I have no doubt that Blanton would help this team. He's a proven major league pitcher. He rates a B+.
At the same time, I don't want to give away the farm to get him. I'm willing to give away a potential A- of tomorrow to get a B+ for today. But, I don't want to give 2 A-'s to get one B+.
But, that's the difficulty. How do you find a fair way to rate minor leaguers? Bruce is protected, so that means someone has a way of determining the worth of a minor league player.
What are the ratings of the young pitchers?
Yep Paul you are still doing it. Quote some more win loss records since they mean so much, tell me about wins and losses and compare them to our youngsters like that really means something, and then come out and say that you think reds fans would say Peavy is a product of petco while his Career away era is still 3.73, and its only that high because of his 06.
I guess since Eric Milton won more games than any of our young guys the last 3 years hes automatically an upgrade. You are right though lets give up what every person in the world thinks is too much to add a guy who might win us 2 more games this year.
Adding Blanton would be fine but with this asking price is not.
Paul,
What is going on with the grievance?
Has that been settled and swept under the rug to avoid embarrassment for our out-witted GM?
Maybe we could unload Majewski and Bray (I hear his shoulder is bothering him now) and get a real prospect or two from Washington. I now that is far fetched, just nothing new to complain about.
PD, doesn't your comment about Arroyo's poor pitching since late 2006 actually argue against getting Blanton? That means Blanton would be the #2 pitcher, and we'll still be looking for a #3.
Given that, we might as well keep the young guys and see how they do.
STOP USING A PITCHERS RECORD AS A MEASURE OF HOW GOOD HE IS. Its TERRIBLE journalism.
Johan Santana is considered the best pitcher and baseball. He was 15-13 last year. The lack of support Arroyo has gotten (from either the bullpen, the lineup, or both) has killed his record. He has had some bad stretches, but overall he has been very strong for the reds.
And Blanton pitches in a pitcher friendly ball park, isnt good at non-pitcher friend ball parks (GABP comes to mind), heavily relies on his defense (the Reds dont have a good one) and simply isnt as good as his record says.
Notice how mid market teams like the Twins and the A's never trade to acquire players in the majors. Its because its a terrible idea. Giving up two of our best prospects would be a huge mistake. They are extremely valuable given their lack of price and high upside. Hell even the Yankees and Red Sox are much more reluctant to give up prospects these days. That should say something, but apparently you arent paying attention Paul.
I've got to wonder what it does to a starter to know that there is no bull pen to back him up. That means he either finishes the game or they lose the game.
What really destroys morale is giving some reliever a 2 or 3 run lead in the 6th or 7th and watching them blow it.
You've got to wonder what it might mean to these pitchers this year to have an improved bull pen.
Here's an equation for you, Paul. What do you think?
improved bull pen = improved morale = more quality starts = inspired defense = more wins
12:22,
While I admit that it may not have been the most prudent idea to give up Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner to the Nationals for what we got in return, I refuse to dwell on how badly it turned out.
You're right, Kearns was good in the field, but never lived up to his hype as a hitter. Lopez was also good in the field, but we can get any old shortstop to hit .250 and handle a decent glove. Wagner was only good when he first came up to the bigs, and couldn't find his groove again after that.
What I'm trying to say is that although Krivsky probably made a bad deal in that one instance, I'm willing to give him a pass on this one. There's obviously no room in our outfield right now for Kearns anyway, and if Keppinger plays anywhere even close to where he did last year, we're in better shape than we would be with Lopez.
Paul, I'm not down on Blanton, I just think we have too much ace potential in our young arms to deal for him now...
Wagner, Kearns and Lopez for Bray alone would have been a good deal.
Lopez stinks, probably won't even start for the Nats this season, and he certainly does not have a good glove. What games were you watching? Kearns is as mediocre as it gets. The money Bowden threw at them is irrelevant. I don't get the love for these bums that would be bench fodder on the 2008 Reds.
Coffey will be better. Write that down. The work he did off season to improve his core strength and conditioning will make a big difference in his performance. If other Reds players put in this kind of off season work, it would pay massive dividends on the field. You will see Coffey's results pay off. This will take some pressure off other guys in the bullpen especially Weathers who is NOT a true closer. Burton needs to step up. If I see fat boy Stanton on the mound this season I am going to have a coronary. This guy is done. He has been done. Left handed relief is a major issue for the Reds this season. Hopefully they will be in enough situations where Cordero will be able to show what he can do.
As for the stating pitchers, it's anyone's guess but outside of Harang, there isn't really much here. Arroyo's career is going south, Belisle (much like Lohse) is a head case, the others, are all potential pretenders. Sorry but count me on Doc's side when it comes to this argument. All potential, no proven winners!
Now, on top of questionable pitching, you have traded your second best player in Hamilton who could hit for power and average, could play defense with a rocket arm and has speed. Speed will be absent from this club. Perhaps the slowest team speed in baseball. In addition, catching is a huge problem. If Ross starts, Baker should bat him ninth. Hopefully Valentin has improved his defense becasue they need his bat desperately. Hits always replace mitts. Narron never understood that.
Encarnacion needs to consistently play the way he did the second half of the season, Gonzalez needs to step up his defense and offense and be the every day shortstop. If he can't Keppinger needs to be the guy. First base needs to produce more power and Phillips has to have the type of year he had last year. If all that comes together and Griffey and Dunn have solid season's, the Reds will get close to winning 81 games.
The bottom line is, in their ballpark, where routine fly's turn into home runs, starting pitching is everything. Keeping the ball down and getting ahead of hitters is what they need to be focusing on. It's not that hard to understand.
Can anyone comment on this? I think this is really important in deciding what to do about Blanton.
How many games do you think the Reds, with their current roster, would win in 2008?
I think they'd be somewhere around 77 to 80 wins with the players they currently have.
So how much better would Blanton make us? 2 extra wins? 3?
That would put us around 79 to 83 wins -- basically a .500 team.
What good does that do us?
Why go 83-79 instead of 80-82 at the expense of Bailey or Cueto or Votto?
I just don't see how that helps.
The Reds got outscored last year by 70 runs. Let's be realistic about how good the 2008 Reds are.
This is the main reason I say, don't bother with Blanton. Hang on to the guys who could actually make the Reds great in 2009 or '10 or beyond.
(Also I just don't think Blanton is that good -- probably 4.50 or 4.60 ERA in GABP. But that's a different argument.)
12:17, my only point about the Kearns/Lopez trade is that we gave away too much value for the pitching we received. We were badly beaten on that trade. It was like getting your pocket picked.
We were so badly outfoxed on that one, that we should be forced to write a 1000 sentences by the teacher:
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
It is possible to be badly beaten by giving away too much in a trade.
12:51,
6.28 ERA Bray is worth Kearns and Lopez all by himself???
Put down the whiskey bottle, son, it's time to take a nap.
Paul, we don't have to wait for 2009. Bailey and Volquez are already naturals to bring up this year.
We'll know by July how they're doing.
What's it hurt to wait and see?
Paul,
I agree to a point with you about Arroyo. He does make me uncomfortable watching him pitch. I would feel more comfortable with him as our #3. However, I did a little research from last year and what I came up with was surprising.
Arroyo pitched in 34 games with a record of 9-15, obvious.
In 24 of those 34 games Arroyo gave up 3 runs or less. In 3 of those he only gave up 4 runs and in the remaining 7 he gave up 5 or more.
Now he only won 9 or those 24. Don't you believe that he could have won at least 5-8 more based on the current bullpen?
So it is of my opinion that trading away some of our best prospects for another a guy that is not any better than Arroyo doesnt make sense. I think it would be better to keep what we have and HOPE out of Bailey, Cueto Maloney and Belisle that 1 or 2 will win 10 games. I truly believe Harang will win 18-20, Arroyo 13-15, Bailey 10, Belisle 8, #5 starter 8 and the bullpen making up the final 29-33 games to make us a 90 win ballclub. Now the question will be does that make us good enough to make it to the playoffs?
Folks: Get real we got nothing for Lopez & Kerns !! Cluless has to go!!We are worse since his arrival..WHERE IS HAMILTON?? ROBBED AGAIN....WAKE UP CINCY FIRE KRIVSKY...INEPT JERK REDS FAN IN FT.THOMAS
Paul,
Homer Bailey showed me something last year. Remember about this kid -- He's ONLY 21 YEARS old.
First, he had a 4-2 record. Since he was just up as a test, that's not bad.
Second, if you take away just 4.4 innings of his entire major league appearance last year, you eliminate just short of HALF of all the runs scored against him.
That would have given him a 3.5 ERA for the year.
Not bad at all for a rookie.
As I look at that, I say, "There's no way I trade this young kid for Blanton."
No way. It would be criminal negligence.
What makes Blanton that much better (if at all) than what the Reds have now? Did he change his name to Johan Santana?
1:33 - Those bums would have been cut. Offloading them for anything is a good deal for the Reds. Bray's ERA is irrelevant. Getting rid of overpaid, under performing, unmotivated players for a decent reliever is a win. Can you make a case that they would even be playing for this club?
Paul although everything makes sence I still believe in this team. I know I am a homer and believe in the idea of a new sping and a new chance, starting with a clean plate and all of that. Okay do you want to start the season with the Reds Suck, why even go to a game why listen, who cares what might happen, the first pitch has not been thrown and already the season is over? Man that must suck to be that kind of fan. I believe now that phillips is signed, Gonzo has baseball and not a sick child on his mind, EE will be better, Votto at first, Dunn well maybe they will not hit the ball that way Junior will do ok, and we have Hopper who can take care of center field. Pitching will be better, and just my opinion 500 ball could be all we need to get to playoffs. Everyone must admit we are not in a powerhouse divison. Come one everyone it's Spring training we have just as much shoot as anyone. lighting up. Go Reds!
Krivsky will take Blanton, but not at the A's price. There are no other takers out there that are poushing Krivsky to make a deal.
Keep the kids. They are the future. A future that we finally will get to realize instead of "rebuilding" (with washed up vets) every 3-4 years.
Measuring pitchers on wins and losses is what brought Eric Milton to town for 3 agonizing years and 25 million misspent dollars.
* Our online blogs currently are hosted and operated by a third party, namely, Blogger.com. You are now leaving the Cincinnati.Com website and will be linked to Blogger.com's registration page. The Blogger.com site and its associated services are not controlled by Cincinnati.Com and different terms of use and privacy policy will apply to your use of the Blogger.com site and services.
By proceeding and/or registering with Blogger.com you agree and understand that Cincinnati.Com is not responsible for the Blogger.com site you are about to access or for any service you may use while on the Blogger.com site. << Home