Football sabermetrics?
Interesting story on a stats guy whose approach has been rejected by every NFL team... hit the link to read about his take on the Bengals last year kicking a field goal v. the Steelers on 4th and inches from the Pgh 2, down 14-3 late in the 1st half, at PBS... remember that one?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/sports/football/20nfl.html?ref=sports
posted by Paul Daugherty at 7:09 AM
6 Comments:
at 7:55 AM 
Anonymous said...
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at 8:19 AM 
Another losing season said...
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at 10:44 AM 
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at 12:52 PM 
Anonymous said...
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at 6:48 AM 
Larry Lester said...
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at 2:52 PM 
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Post a Comment*Using a computer to make your real time football calls would be stupid. Marvin may make some dumb calls from time to time, but it is impossible for them to program in all the variables, the coach on the field needs to have the say. And the coach on the field doesn't need to have a computer second guessing him. The first time the coach says "run" when the computer said "Pass" and the run play fails and someone says he needs to listen to the computer more ... well thats when the computer will be laying in a pile in the dumpster.
No program will ever be able to determine which players took a play off or which players heart just isn't in it.
There are way too many human variables that simply cannot be captured, measured and consequently quantified.
I agree with 7:55 & 8:19 (many variables the computer couldn't include, or even know).
But, most interesting was Marvin's quote which said essentially >> "I'm not going to make a call that Mike could second-guess on Monday morning".
So he really isn't trying to win, just trying not make a call that could make him look bad???
Here's the link to the Bengal's comment not found in the NYT article:
http://pigskinrevolution.com/Marvin_Knows_Best2_2007.html
Most NFL coaches are notoriously conservative on fourth and short situations. People say these computers can't predict the emotional letdown if a team goes for it on 4th and 1 and misses, but what about the emotional effects on a team when a coach sends out the punter, essentially telling his offense they aren't good enough to gain a yard. And the moment that Marvin didn't go for it in the game Doc mentioned was the moment I gave up on watching boring NFL football.
I think the guy is right. I've long felt that most NFL coaches are way too conservative. Consider a simple scenario. If I go for it inside the 20, and convert and score even fifty percent of the time I will be better off than if I just kick field goals. (For example - 2 drives, stopped once scored one TD result is 7 points versus 2 drives and kick FGs for 6 points).
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